PREDIKSI NILAI TUKAR NELAYAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) DI PROVINSI GORONTALO TAHUN 2024

Abstract

Fisherman's Exchange Rate (NTN) is the ratio between the price index received by fishermen (It) and the price index received by fishermen (Ib). This research problem discusses the prediction of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method on the Fisherman's Exchange Rate (NTN) in Gorontalo Province based on the Mean Absolute Centage Error (MAPE) value. The data used in this research is 122 monthly data from January 2014 to February 2024. This data was taken online in the Gorontalo Province Central Statistics Agency (BPS) publication. The research results show that the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method has a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1,361 points. Based on the calculation of the smallest value using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). So we get the prediction results from the ARIMA method on the Fisherman's Exchange Rate (NTN) in Gorontalo Province with prediction results for the next 12 months. Meanwhile in March 2024 the predicted result was 96.73 points, compared to February, while in May 2024 it remained at 96.74 points, this explains that fishermen's income from the results of fishermen's business for sale obtained the lowest value in March, with Thus, the level of welfare of fishermen in March 2024 remained at around 96.73 points, this shows that the level of welfare of fishermen before and after was still not good.